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View Full Version : If Newt wins New Hampshire retail politics is dead.



Unregistered
12/01/11, 10:54 AM
It used to be that New Hampshire and Iowa lead the nation because a presidential candidate could campaign and meet a significant number of residents from a small state. In turn the candidates that spent a lot of time in the state benefitted from higher poll numbers. Not this year. Newt has not been campaigning in either state. In fact he failed to even find 40 supporters to be delegates in New Hampshire. Something that is normally a prize to be awarded to the most loyal supporters.

Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann Fail to File Full Slates of NH Delegates
http://nhjournal.com/2011/12/01/gingrich-santorum-bachmann-fail-to-file-full-slates-of-nh-delegates/

Unregistered
12/01/11, 10:59 AM
How is Newt polling in New Hampshire? Mitt is supposed to win that because he's well known there. Of course he was supposed to win there in 2008 and McCain beat him.

Unregistered
12/01/11, 01:44 PM
How is Newt polling in New Hampshire? Mitt is supposed to win that because he's well known there. Of course he was supposed to win there in 2008 and McCain beat him.

Newt is behind Mitt by double digits in all but one of them.

Romney (R)
42%
Gingrich (R)
15%
WMUR/UNH Poll

Romney (R)
41%
Gingrich (R)
14%
Suffolk University Poll

The odd poll out.

Romney (R)
29%
Gingrich (R)
27%
Magellan Strategies

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/new-hampshire/

Unregistered
12/01/11, 01:47 PM
Rasmussen has the lastest granite state poll but its preCain collapse. In 2008 Rasmussen was often unreliable until the last few days of an election so I imagine they are still biased.

Jon Huntsman has put in a lot of time in New Hampshire but the days of independent voters making up their own minds are long gone. With fox news instructing viewers to dump Mittens and vote for Newt and Cain reassessing, I bet Newt will win.

Unregistered
12/01/11, 01:53 PM
The WMUR/UNH Poll is the most recent for New Hampshire. If it's accurate Gingrich is completely fucked there. On the other hand Mitt is completely fucked in Florida

Newt Gingrich 47%
Mitt Romney 17%
Public Policy Polling
11/28/11-11/30/11
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/presidential-polls/

Unregistered
12/01/11, 01:59 PM
Rasmussen has the lastest granite state poll but its preCain collapse. In 2008 Rasmussen was often unreliable until the last few days of an election so I imagine they are still biased.

Jon Huntsman has put in a lot of time in New Hampshire but the days of independent voters making up their own minds are long gone. With fox news instructing viewers to dump Mittens and vote for Newt and Cain reassessing, I bet Newt will win.

For Huntsman fourth place is a resounding triumph.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters in New Hampshire shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney on top at 34%, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 24%. This is the first survey of New Hampshire Primary voters conducted since the Manchester Union Leader endorsed Gingrich. Seventy-six percent (76%) were able to identify Gingrich as the candidate who had received the endorsement from the influential statewide newspaper. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ten points behind Gingrich is Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 14%, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman follows at 11%. No other candidates are in double digits. Businessman Herman Cain is down to five percent (5%) support, followed by Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at two percent (2%), Texas Governor Rick Perry at two percent (2%) and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with one percent (1%). One percent (1%) support some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are still undecided.

The race remains fluid, however. Among those with a preference at this time, only 42% are certain that they will vote for that candidate in the January 10 primary.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Unregistered
12/01/11, 02:12 PM
The WMUR/UNH Poll is the most recent for New Hampshire. If it's accurate Gingrich is completely fucked there.

This poll is a week old. It does not fully capture the Union Leader endorsement of Newt, Fox's push for Newt, or the Cain train derailment.

"Also of note is that just 16 percent of these likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84 percent of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary."

So, no one is "fucked" just yet. But the voters are being told to vote for Newt and no one is telling them to vote for Mittens.

Unregistered
12/01/11, 02:25 PM
This poll is a week old. It does not fully capture the Union Leader endorsement of Newt, Fox's push for Newt, or the Cain train derailment.

"Also of note is that just 16 percent of these likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84 percent of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary."

So, no one is "fucked" just yet. But the voters are being told to vote for Newt and no one is telling them to vote for Mittens.

Aside from Mitt himself. I still don't see a southern religious right type doing that well in a purple state. But low turnout could be his friend.

Unregistered
12/01/11, 02:31 PM
The strategy of campaigning hard in New Hampshire was pioneered by History's Greatest Monster himself, Jimmy Carter. His campaign manager successfully exploited the leverage going door to door in a small state gave a candidate.

Newt can take advantage of that, but so can anyone else if Newt stumbles. Newt has a habit of self destructing at the worst possible moment. His campaign is rumored to be waiting for it to happen since he's past due.